Disqus - Latest Comments for optiondragon

Re: Buying into Weakness - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:45:16 -0000

yours too...looks like mine! LOL

Re: Buying into Weakness - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:36:58 -0000

ok!

Re: "4Q" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:22:11 -0000

LOL huh thats sounds about right there too. should i just flip a coin? seriously.

Re: "4Q" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:57:57 -0000

thanks, yeah its small controlling the risk by the amount. Someone decided to buy 300 contracts though, hopefully they are strangling! LOL

Re: "4Q" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:53:30 -0000

Jeff the best metric on it is that 48% of the float is short....lol

Re: "4Q" - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:02:25 -0000

Earnings Preview: Synaptics (SYNA) reports Thursday, July 31 After Market Close
Synaptics (SYNA) is expected to report Q4 earnings Thursday with a conference call scheduled for 5pm ET. The consensus estimate is 42c for EPS and $92.78M for revenue, according to First Call. Thomas Weisel expects Synaptics to report earnings in line with Street expectations. Guidance was for revenue of $90M to $95M, up 14% to up 21% QoQ, versus Weisel’s estimate of $92.5M. Weisel’s non-GAAP EPS estimate is 39c, based on their conservative gross margin projection. The firm believes the company’s notebook business remains on track, with incremental contribution from mobile. Going forward, for Q1, Weisel expects Synaptics to guide better than expectations. Guidance was for revenue of $100M to $106M, up 8% to up 14% QoQ. Consensus estimates are: $103.4M and 59c. Weisel said that the gross margin could perform ahead of its conservative 40% estimate on higher OneTouch shipment. In the firm’s opinion, the quarter is likely to see increased contribution from handsets as design wins continue to ramp. Weisel also expects sequential growth to be driven by seasonality in all verticals, handsets, notebooks, with incremental contribution from portable media players (PMP). Weisel believes the touch solutions for smartphones remains the big theme in 2H08, and that Synaptics has already worked with every major OEM. Oppenheimer recently said, �Checks indicate Synaptics is well-positioned with Samsung, Nokia (NOK) and Research In Motion (RIMM), and is likely to get more than its fair share of wins as these players begin to adopt capacitive touch in the coming few quarters.� Lastly, recall that last quarter the company indicated it would no longer provide two-quarter guidance

i like it too Jeff, arms dealer to RIMM, NOK, and Samsung and they are going to be doing some product intros shortly...I like both techs, fundies and sentiment is favorable...
I'm in aug 50 calls.
:)

Re: Afternoon Boost - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 14:50:31 -0000

Have a great weekend Jeff, can't wait for your new Watchlist bro! TGIF!

Re: Free Falling... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:55:06 -0000

for you some eyeliner.....

http://youtube.com/watch?v=...

Re: Free Falling... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 14:39:41 -0000

Thank you Thor!

Re: Free Falling... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:58:01 -0000

Jeff what do you think about ALL?

California forces Allstate to drastically lower home insurance rates-LA Times
California will force Allstate (ALL) to reduce its home insurance premiums in the state by 28.5%. The decision appears to end more than two years of battles between California and Allstate. The insurer, which said it would comply with the state's order, stopped issuing new homeowners' insurance policies in California last year, but still covers about 1 in 7 of the state's residences.

Allstate-ALL comments on California homeowners rate ruling
Allstate Senior Corporate Relations Manager Peter DeMarco issued the following statement regarding the California Department of Insurance’s order to lower Allstate’s homeowners rates in California by 28.5%: “While we are disappointed in this order, we respect the authority of the Department and will comply. We are reviewing the order in detail and communicating with the Department about the process for adjusting the rates of our 850,000 homeowners policyholders in the state. Californians can continue to rely on more than 1,300 Allstate agents to help them with insurance and retirement needs.

I am in on the ALL Aug 45 puts and expect some serious earnings revisions and downgrades and I like the technicals and sentiment is against them due to Star Mine's expectations of an earnings miss (on CNBC yesterday) and high catastrophy incidents in 2008....

Re: Woulda... Coulda... Shoulda... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 16:42:16 -0000

Will ferrell on CNBC= Hilarious

http://youtube.com/watch?v=...

Re: Woulda... Coulda... Shoulda... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:25:00 -0000

what no B-12 this time....ridiculous! LOL

Re: Bank with Banks - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:23:24 -0000

He's actually doing an Anchorman 2....so funny.

Sky's the limit for you now Jeff. :)

Re: ECB Hikes; On Hold - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 12:30:26 -0000

Tropical strom Bertha is forming in the eastern Atantic right now and will be a hurricane in 5 days…..thus no one wants to short USO right now….oil hurricane premium will hold prices staedy and steady higher with possibility of a spike on a Gulf penetration.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
National Hurricane center…

Bertha track probabilities: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ref... ontents

Re: B.O.H.I.C.A (Bend Over, Here It Comes Again) - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:48:55 -0000

Thanks, and I'll be waiting to hear from you..... ;)

Re: B.O.H.I.C.A (Bend Over, Here It Comes Again) - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:08:29 -0000

hedged coal, steel exposure with XME puts.

Bought ANR sept 70 calls at $5 and finally sold them this morn at $37, XME hedge working half as well as Id like.

Re: B.O.H.I.C.A (Bend Over, Here It Comes Again) - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:53:03 -0000

Coal news synopsis

Coal stocks, which have represented one of the few momentum groups recently,
are under notable pressure this morning with MEE -9.9%, JRCC -8.1%, ACI -7.9%,
FCL -7.7%, CNX -7.6%, ANR -6.6%, ICO -6.3%, NCOC -6.1%, BTU -5.4%, FDG
-4.70%… There doesn’t seem to be one clear cut reason for today’s sharp
pullback in the group from the recent highs, but we have heard a few possible
explanations for the move: 1) chatter that coal delivery for next year in
Europe will be down 13%; 2) talk of hedge fund selling to cover margins &
redemptions. Additionally, Reuters South Africa reported that coal physical
and swaps prices plunged by more than $20 on Wednesday as the market began a
long-awaited correction. At least one physical coal cargo has traded almost
$20 lower than prices indicated on Tuesday and bids have pulled back by over
$20 from Tuesday’s levels for South African cargoes FOB Richards Bay and
multi-origin coal delivered into Europe. Richards Bay cargoes traded close to
$180 early in the week but bids had pulled back to $150 by early afternoon
Wednesday.

Re: I'm Bored... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:16:53 -0000

hilarious clip!

Re: Price Target: WYNN Resorts - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 15:45:44 -0000

ROFL, great clip! too funny

Re: Trade of the Week - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:26:50 -0000

Many Reasons to Sell H&R Block
Tuesday June 10, 12:03 pm ET
By Sean P. Smith from Zack's

We maintain our Sell rating for H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB - News). Although we believe that the company has taken substantial steps in the right direction, we feel that the recent increase in the stock price has been overdone.

Given the current business outlook, as well as the possibility that the company may face additional political-related risks going forward, we do not believe that the current valuation is warranted. Our price target of $20 reflects a multiple of approximately 14x our fiscal 2009 EPS estimate.

Our outlook for the business services industry is neutral. But we expect strong growth in the outsourcing industry over the next three-to-five years.

H&R Block is the largest provider of tax preparation services in the world. H&R Block is also leveraging its strong position and customer relationships in tax preparation to build out its investment and financial services businesses.

On June 3, the Attorney General of Massachusetts has filed suit against HRB. The suit alleges that the company engaged in unfair and deceptive conduct on a broad scale. We believe that the suit provides evidence that the operational difficulties and potential financial fallout resulting from the company's mortgage operations may continue to be a factor going forward.

Currently, the shares trade at approximately 16.2x our 2008 EPS estimate. Additionally, the Office of Thrift Supervision has terminated the prior regulatory requirement that HRB maintain 3% adjusted tangible capital at the parent company level at all times. We view the development favorably.

We expect that the company's share price may be subject to political-related pressures going forward. The presumptive Presidential nominees of both major political parties have stated an intention to simplify the tax code. Any such measures would, in our opinion, likely put pressure on HRB's operations and share price.

OK lots of negative possibilities here

Re: Off Topic... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:08:47 -0000

not sure but I picked it up on my scan and they are eating it up like fried chicken....Earnings are on June 30th, great technical short, they got an upgrade by Oppenhiemer this monday saying they already sold their mortgage Option One unit and it is a good buy. One to watch but the july 20 put volume is ridiculous!

Re: Off Topic... - Blog - Jeff Kohler the Option Addict | Stock and Options Trading

optiondragon — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 13:17:56 -0000

NASDAQ Market Internals Summary: 12PM
Volume is normal for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 781 / Declining Issues: 1933 ( Ratio: 0.40 ). Advancing Volume: 200,761,859 / Declining Volume: 988,202,392 ( Ratio: 0.20 ). New 52-Week Highs: 19 / New 52-Week Lows: 149.

NYSE Market Internals Summary: 12PM
Volume is normal for this time of day. Breadth is bearish across the board. Advancing Issues: 579 / Declining Issues: 2419 ( Ratio: 0.24 ). Advancing Volume: 145,195,640 / Declining Volume: 749,967,441 ( Ratio: 0.19 ). New 52-Week Highs: 23 / New 52-Week Lows: 221

How about HRB?