Disqus - Latest Comments for itsdono

Re: Bloomberg - Bloomberg

Don Jones — Thu, 23 May 2019 15:32:44 -0000

It's also commonly known as a 'mob.'

Re: IPOs Are Back In Favor

Don Jones — Tue, 24 Oct 2017 18:33:34 -0000

DJL, I write a lot about tech IPOs (https://seekingalpha.com/au... and where the average retail investor can play is in waiting for the "pop and drop" to play itself out in the days and weeks after the IPO.

Recently, 'pop and drop' has been very pronounced with the Chinese VIE entities that have gone public. Qudian (QD) is a textbook example. It targeted a midpoint share price of $20.50 in the F-1/roadshow, then on Oct 17 it sold to institutions at $24, opened the next day at $30.63, reached a high of $35.75 that same day (the pop) and then dropped to a low of $26.52 within four days.

That kind of up and down volatility is typically more extreme than the U.S. techs that Fred and other VC bring to market, but the concept is the same. Avoid the craziness, let the dust settle a bit and look for a better entry point. I did with QD and we'll see if I'm right about it.

So, IMHO, the moral of the story is to find an IPO you're really interested in and be patient - watch to see if it 'pops and drops' due to external factors and you might find something at a decent price that still has lots of growth and happy days ahead.

Re: No One Gets Out Of This Alive

Don Jones — Sun, 28 Feb 2016 16:24:11 -0000

The awareness of our impending demise creates the necessary urgency to our actions.

Without it in a future world of extreme longevity, I wonder if the human race will evolve as quickly.

Re: Project Fi

Don Jones — Thu, 23 Apr 2015 11:12:25 -0000

If anyone can cobble it together, Google can. But the devil is in the details of quality and speed of the service, with low packet loss and low latency.

I imagine Verizon/AT&T could position themselves as "quality" services in response to it.

Re: Notes on cars — Benedict Evans

Don Jones — Sun, 08 Mar 2015 16:43:02 -0000

Your assumption of driverless cars being "dumb wheels" is questionable. There are many difficult edge-cases requiring instant processing and responses in all kinds of weather that will necessitate processing in real-time by the vehicle, not waiting for the cloud. This will increase cost/complexity. $25K for true driverless robots that consumers will entrust their lives to is also probably way too low.

Re: Fundamental Software Problems That Haven’t Been Solved Yet

Don Jones — Wed, 31 Dec 2014 18:02:35 -0000

You read biographies? Me, too...love 'em

Currently reading Napoleon: A Life, by Andrew Roberts. Absolutely fantastic (and voluminous) reappraisal of the man that Winston Churchill called "The greatest man of action born in Europe since Julius Caesar."

Re: Immigration

Don Jones — Fri, 21 Nov 2014 11:53:33 -0000

The rule of law is important, politically and economically.

For example, Fred and most VCs usually require that startups incorporate as a Delaware corporation.

Why is that?

Because of the many protections afforded by Delaware corporate law. Also, because investors like Fred can RELY on settled law so they can have the greatest possible confidence in the enforcement of their legal rights.

Other states have corporation laws, too, yet VCs and most investors require Delaware law for their investments, in large part due to its consistency and reliability in enforcing the law.

So, if the consistent and reliable enforcement of laws is an extremely important aspect of where startups are incorporated, it is equally important in all other matters as well.

Re: Values and Culture

Don Jones — Wed, 19 Nov 2014 11:54:41 -0000

Media is all about flux, delta.

Re: The Cable Model and The Internet Model

Don Jones — Sun, 16 Nov 2014 21:55:51 -0000

Cogent is not upstream from the last mile. They are long haul, metro and all the way into the premises.

Re: The Cable Model and The Internet Model

Don Jones — Sun, 16 Nov 2014 21:53:37 -0000

Cogent is most definitely an ISP.

They also operate 2 of the 11 root servers for the Internet (which they took over when they bought PSI.net from bankruptcy years ago).

They have been on the receiving end of more than one peering dispute and they can be complicated issues, not necessarily neutrality related.

Re: - Thisisgoingtobebig.com - The Thin Skin of the Venture Capital Market

Don Jones — Mon, 03 Nov 2014 22:06:18 -0000

Any time there is defensiveness, it usually is a cover for insecurity.

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 11:53:39 -0000

Instead of implementing a CO2 tax, which would only serve to increase costs through pass-through effects and reduce the incentive to innovate by replacement technologies, why not create a series of large government-funded prizes for meeting objective technology advancement milestones, modeled on the "X Prize"?

For a fraction of the CO2 tax cost on our economy, start with $5 billion divided into $1 billion "E Prizes" (E for Energy) for each of the following areas:

Solar
Wind
Biofuels
Fuel Cell
Energy Storage

A $1 billion prize for success in each of the above categories would be a powerful incentive that would lure investment in new technologies, creating thousands of high-paying technology jobs. In addition, it would advance the technologies to make them more competitive with existing fossil fuel costs.

The program could also include a guarantee of government pilot opportunities for those companies winning the E Prize for their category, thus ensuring potential future revenues and proof of concept.

This is the kind of use of public money that would reward private enterprise for improving our energy options, rather than penalizing them.

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Tue, 23 Sep 2014 11:30:35 -0000

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyr...

You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world...

But when you talk about destruction [economic]
Don't you know that you can count me out...

You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head

You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You'd better free your mind instead

But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao
You ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Tue, 23 Sep 2014 10:26:33 -0000

"Let's wait and see" is not what I have written here.

I find that liberal-minded people are generally more smug about government "solutions" to problems. Their conceit runs rampant when faced with skepticism about their positions.

A closed mind takes many forms...

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Tue, 23 Sep 2014 09:58:24 -0000

I agree - lots of very smart people who have closed minds...on BOTH sides of the issue.

I support a steady and gradual approach to reducing human impact on the planet, through new technologies and conservation. I don't agree with the sky is falling eco-extremists who have hijacked the environmental agenda.

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Mon, 22 Sep 2014 18:52:45 -0000

Albert,

Your post is a classic straw-man characterization. Even your use of the term "fallacy" is subjective and really code for "positions I don't agree with".

As for your statements that "Stress helps the economy" and "A big change, such as taxing CO2 emissions, would ultimately result in a significant increase in economic activity" (both of which are sweeping and without any justification provided): Why don't you set a good example for the rest of us and voluntarily accept "stress" on your own personal economic situation? I'm sure you and your family won't mind taking the economic hit, since "ultimately" there will be more economic activity (Who knows when).

Think there aren't costs to the policies you advocate? California is going to raise gasoline taxes...again. This one will hit the poorest the hardest. Calif. is already one of the most heavily taxed states, with more people fleeing to low tax states, and the economy here is crummy. Higher taxes on a slow economy - smart - that will increase activity according to you. Uh, sure...OK!

As a California native of 51 years, it sickens me to see how expensive it has become to live here, with worse education and crummy public services! But I guess the answer is more taxes. http://www.usnews.com/opini...

Also, the U.S. is 3X more efficient per capita than China in energy usage, why don't you organize a 300,000 person march in Beijing? Oops, their government won't let you. Maybe you should publish your post in Mandarin, though it probably will be met with deaf ears.

What are your environmental prescriptions...what are you proposing - and better yet - what will they cost us? The left comes up with ideas on how to "fix" things, but absent from their vocabulary are the three simple words: "At what cost?" (I know you'll be tempted to throw out the canard "What's the cost of doing nothing?, blah blah - but it's just a standard way of avoiding answering the question.)

FWIW, I'm all for resource conservation, energy efficiency, government support for long-term R&D into alternative energy technologies and nuclear power, I just haven't drunk the eco-extremist cool-aid. Most of the American people haven't either. (BTW, Stewart Brand, Internet pioneer and early environmentalist, is vociferously FOR nuclear power).

You can have the last word. I have to get back to work.

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Mon, 22 Sep 2014 16:43:17 -0000

The "ready, fire, aim" approach advocated by eco-extremists from their cherry-picked research, and which promises to sacrifice the global economy, has been refused by the general public and by extension governments.

Reason: lack of credibility.

As one scientist on the UNCC said a few years ago, "We can't even get a 5-day forecast right most of the time".

Re: Climate: A Successful March and Three Fallacies

Don Jones — Mon, 22 Sep 2014 15:37:12 -0000

"Steven Koonin, the undersecretary for science in the Energy
Department during President Obama’s first term, wrote a pathbreaking
piece in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal in which he concluded:

We often hear that there is a “scientific consensus” about climate change.
But as far as the computer models go, there isn’t a useful consensus at
the level of detail relevant to assessing human influence. . . . The
models roughly describe the shrinking extent of Arctic sea ice observed
over the past two decades, but they fail to describe the comparable
growth of Antarctic sea ice, which is now at a record high. . . . Any
serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by acknowledging
not only the scientific certainties, but also the uncertainties,
especially in projecting the future. Recognizing those limits, rather
than ignoring them, will lead to a more sober and ultimately more
productive discussion of climate change and climate policies. To do
otherwise is a great disservice to climate science itself."

Re: Realism Versus Political Correctness in Opposing ISIS

Don Jones — Mon, 08 Sep 2014 23:35:43 -0000

If only Obama was capable of successfully conveying resoluteness with a nuanced approach. He's good on the nuance, not so good on the resoluteness, since he comes off as a lecturing professor.

I know...for his Wednesday speech, he should pause half way through and say, "And now a word from Joe Biden, who is on his way to the Gates of Hell!"

Re: Russia's Stealthy, Slow-Motion Invasion of Ukraine

Don Jones — Sat, 30 Aug 2014 13:06:33 -0000

The two players who have any leverage are Germany and UK. Everyone else is a bystander, especially, the U.S.

Re: Russia's Stealthy, Slow-Motion Invasion of Ukraine

Don Jones — Fri, 29 Aug 2014 19:24:36 -0000

The UK simply needs to freeze the accounts of hundreds of billions of Russian oligarch $$$ stashed in their financial system. Instead, there's lot's of fist pounding, but no action. Hmmm.

Re: Why More Robot Workers Isn't A Bad Thing For Jobs - by Lauren Orsini

Don Jones — Tue, 19 Aug 2014 11:45:14 -0000

Perhaps we should have the robots begin first by replacing the people who write these reports...then see what the people writing these reports think about how it's not so bad...

Re: BNP Paribas Charged in Sanctions Violation Probe in New York

Don Jones — Mon, 30 Jun 2014 17:12:21 -0000

It was BNP Paribas that also helped "process" billions for the UN oil for food program under Saddam Hussein, which numerous international inquiries concluded had resulted in something like a range of $15 billion - $64 billion in illicit gain? I recall it was the biggest suspected fraud of its time as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wik...

"The sole bank handling funds transfers for the Oil-for-Food Programme
was the New York branch of the Banque Nationale de Paris-Paribas, or BNP
Paribas. This French bank was the sole bank administering the $64
billion UN programme. An investigation by the US House Committee on International Relations
found that BNP Paribas made payments without proof that goods were
delivered and sanctioned payments to third parties not identified as
authorized recipients. Investigators estimate that the bank received
more than $700 million in fees under the UN programme that began in 1996
and ended after the ousting of Saddam in March 2003."

BNP seems to be good at outdoing the ill-gotten gain of its Swiss competitors.

Re: The Case of Paul Wolfowitz

Don Jones — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 15:35:25 -0000

In any event, the US approach to leaving a residual force in Afghanistan - per Obama, for "training Afghan forces and supporting counterterrorism operations against the remnants of Al Qaeda...” applies no less equally to Iraq.

The only difference is to strike the words "remnants of"...since Al Qaeda is in Iraq in full force.

Re: Growing wealth inequality should be addressed now

Don Jones — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 13:40:11 -0000

Nic,

Agreed. But how to effect that change when VCs and tech entrepreneurs are not incentivized to "create jobs" or spread the wealth. VCs are incentivized to produce returns for their investors and to invest in the most efficient tech startups. Entrepreneurs are incentivized to create wealth for themselves and their investors.

If VC LPs began to require changes to LP agreements to include bonus benchmarks for creating jobs or other quantifiable social impacts, then maybe the incentives would trickle through the system.

Without a fundamental change of incentives, it's just talking...

What do you think?