Disqus - Latest Comments for mpodrazik

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

mpodrazik — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:41:36 -0000

@howie yeah, my mom wants one too :) I do think Palm generally has a positive association with people as well.

In thinking about this more I actually do think that Google isn't really in competition with Apple and Palm as much as Microsoft.

Google doesn't need one particular piece of hardware running Android to be a hit in the way that Apple and Palm, (and RIM to the extent that they go after the consumer market), do since they don't make the hardware or make money on the hardware or licensing.

As all phones become smartphones, Android could be positioned as the choice of OS for manufacturers who are not Apple, Palm or RIM simply because it is free and modern and there. Your HTCs, LGs, etc. might just migrate to it as an enabling technology so that they can stay in the game.

Microsoft is sort of in the same position but Windows Mobile doesn't seem to be appealing to people so much these days and comes with licensing fees attached.

Android is going to be running on netbooks which would otherwise be running Windows.

So maybe Android never has the same brand in-your-faceness but could quietly emerge to capture a large segment of the market.

I wonder about Nokia. Will they continue to push Symbian? A combined Nokia and Palm would be interesting...

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

howie — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 17:45:12 -0000

I think you guys are missing one important point in this whole discussion. You mentioned mindshare, but branding is a big part of that. Who is actually buying these things? We can go back and forth all we want about who makes the handset or the features or integration, but the truth is. My MOM wants an iphone. Everyone knows what it is and that they want one. Just like the ipod vs every other mp3 player. Everyone in corporate america wants a blackberry and RIM really knows how to build relationships with enterprise customers. But the people who really know and care about android, and WebOS, and HTC...well, we're a tiny percentage of the market. Hell, T-moble doesnt even use the name android! they are marketing "the G1 with google!"

My point being that the make-or-break for Palm will be if it can get enough buzz so that people who are not geeks want to buy it. Its the reason android may have some difficulty. "heck, my phone already has google"

Im really not sure what the name Palm means to people anymore. is it still a positive association? Can webOS/Pre get in enough hands to get it back there?

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

mpodrazik — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 17:11:11 -0000

Yeah, a big reason the Mac, iPhone, etc. work so well is 'cause they are 'vertically integrated'

I'm a little surprised actually how much brand power Palm still has. I had kind of written them off a while ago yet have relatives asking about the merits of the Pre vs. iPhone weeks ago.

Contrast that to Android who I doubt many non-tech people are aware of at all...

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

felix — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:40:10 -0000

I will believe 18-20 Android phones in the next 6 months when I see it. If there's 3 on the market, I'll be surprised. It'd be great, though. I'm super curious to see how the Android Marketplace copes with multiple handsets.

However, on "The Microsoft Way" I have to strenuously disagree. That way has worked exactly once in history. Look what happened to Apple when it tried to go licensing - it almost collapsed the company. Or look at what happened to Palm when it tried that. Heck, look at what happened to Microsoft when it tried Plays-for-sure - it's dropped that for the Apple Way and Zune (which while not a success, is a raging success when compared to plays-for-sure). Or look at the lack of success for WinMob. Successful companies like RIM, Apple, Danger (to a degree) and even Palm of old (as well as of new :) control everything.

But I agree with your point that Google is in a unique position with Android (and Chrome, too on the web side) to not really be too worried if Android doesn't rule the world. Although, they'd certainly like it to be in order to have a greater say in the evolution of the smartphone (and browser).

Nevertheless, Android's committee of enemies seems like it will be ever more burdensome the more successful the product is as each member strives to cram in that which will help it the most and block that which will help it's competitors. I think '09 and '10 will see a bunch of Android phones hit the market, but I'll be curious to see if it doesn't achieve mainstream brand awareness what will happen in '11.

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

mpodrazik — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:56:12 -0000

Multiple OEMs. Forgetting about the netbook thing for a minute, the fact that there are supposed to be 18-20 Android phones on the market before the end of '09 is Google taking a page out of Microsoft's playbook, (except for the open source part ;)

There are advantages to having a really clear and controlled product line. This is "The Apple Way". There are also advantages to being ubiquitous, not worrying about the hardware so much and just the OS, "The Microsoft Way".

I think the iPhone/Android battle may be a regurgitation of the Apple/Microsoft battle in the early days.

Plus, I'm not sure if this is an advantage or not for Google but they are not actually trying to make any money on licensing fees since Android is open. On the one hand that sucks 'cause they won't be making money but on the other they don't care 'cause they're rich and are going at it more obliquely for mindshare or whatever...

It doesn't really matter ultimately whether it works or not since you're not going to be using Bing or Wolfram anytime soon regardless of the phone you've got. The worst case scenario for GOOG is basically neutral.

It might be naive but I almost believe it when Schmidt says he doesn't think they are in competition. The iPhone has actually been great for Google, after all. Pre will be great for Google. The rise of the smartphone in general is great for Google. If they can shape that future to whatever degree is possible with Android they will do it, but no matter what they win if the phone is an Internet device.

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

felix — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:45:29 -0000

Yes, no one is going to unseat Apple in the foreseeable future. No one's even going to sit on the same bench. :)

Do you really think that Android has any chance to get in the way of the iPhone juggernaut in the foreseeable future? I suppose it's because I don't see the need for netbooks in general, but I even ever more so don't see the advantage of Android on netbooks. And if it does get on netbooks, what advantage does it have for Android as a platform? It will require completely different apps - given the difference in screen size, processor, input... so it will actually serve, I believe to confuse the Android Marketplace.

I've been thinking alot about this in general - what does Android gain from being an open, embedded system in relation to its fight for smartphones? Does it gain anything for getting used on digital frames? Embedded in a toaster? It certainly isn't bad, but I'm not clear that it is all that good.

I'm going to stand by my thought that the medium term battle for second will come down to Android and WebOS after RIM starts it's nosedive.

Re: My take on the Pre - Palm’s salvation.

mpodrazik — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:37:00 -0000

It will save them in the sense that they will not have to go under / sell out to another company, (at least not because they have no other choice).

Will it unseat Apple? No chance.

As you alluded to I think RIM has more to fear from Palm, (and Apple and Google/Android), than Apple or Google/Android do from Palm.

Apple loses some in the sense that they don't get to run away with the market, but that was not going to happen anyway.

I disagree with your Android vs. WebOS matchup though. I think the matchup is between Apple and Android, especially when Android netbooks arrive and if/when Apple releases a tablet.

I'm wondering if a Pre hit makes Palm attractive to RIM or Microsoft or Nokia...

Re: My thoughts on the Palm Pre Smartphone

felix — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:12:23 -0000

These are great points - I have a longer post brewing on this topic, but my basic thinking is that with the launch of the iPhone essentially came the mainstreaming of the smartphone. The market went from niche to mainstream over the past two years and will is and will continue to grow quickly. Thus, more or less, the market essentially started two years ago - what had gone on prior to that is irrelevant to success in the new market. RIMM had a historical advantage but now they're saddled with a legacy OS ill equipped to meet this new crop of next gen mobile OS's head on, something big is going to need to happen on this front and soon. Android is a real contender - but they are saddled with a consortium of 30 odd partners with conflicting needs, I have a grave fear that the speed of their innovation is going to be hampered by this. Microsoft and Nokia, in my opinion are worse off in this new landscape saddled with both legacy OS's, no impending new ones and as far as I can tell are desperately trying to stay afloat. If WebOS and the Pre come out soon and live up to most of the hype, I think it'll really put Palm back on the map.

Re: My thoughts on the Palm Pre Smartphone

mpodrazik — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 16:24:37 -0000

Palm is definitely back in the race, but I don't know where that puts them in the multi-year race you posit. The new OS looks sweet, but they are missing a key business advantage that the other players have.

Apple obviously redefined the market and are the team to beat, especially when combined with their dominant IPod position and ascendant Mac hardware/software. Everybody loves the brand. They are integrated. Nuff said.

RIM has historically been dominant among business users, the BlackBerry is ubiquitous. This can continue to be leveraged, (the client I'm at, for example, outlaws IPhone access to the corporate Exchange server but BlackBerries are supported). The movement of everybody to more powerful smart phones was inevitable. Their problem is that Apple captured everyone's attention at the critical tipping point with a killer product.

Android's big, while unproven, selling-point is that it's open source. Google is not the hardware maker and anybody can run the damn thing. They don't need to have these exclusive relationships with carriers since potentially many many handset makers will have it on many many devices on many many carriers. It's the Microsoft strategy vs. the Apple strategy, but with a free Windows license. Regardless of the features this is a very attractive option I would think.

Don't count out Nokia and Microsoft either. Windows Mobile sucks but it is impossible that Microsoft will allow all this action to go unanswered for long. The whole Azure/Live/Mesh combination could be a force to be reckoned with, and now that Symbian is open source as well who knows.

Anyway, the Pre appears to be very impressive, but from a one-foot-in-the-grave company exclusively partnered with the distant third-place carrier having their own problems (hemorrhaging customers, me included), its still gonna be tough road for them. They would need a big selling point. Now if they come out with a WiMAX-enabled version...

Re: Amazon to add Content Delivery Service, continues to kicks butt

felix — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:07:38 -0000

Yes, I haven't yet put a client on EC2, but I imagine the days of that happening are numbered - probably not imminently, but the writing is clearly on the wall. Have you been working with EC2?

Re: Amazon to add Content Delivery Service, continues to kicks butt

mpodrazik — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 16:10:43 -0000

fan. there are very few compelling reasons left to not deploy on the AMZN stack at this point...

Re: Breakfast Links: Cuttlefish, The Rock & WWDC

felix — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 07:18:05 -0000

What is all this Rock hatin' going on on my blog?? What is the meaning of this??!!

Re: Breakfast Links: Cuttlefish, The Rock & WWDC

mpodrazik — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 06:06:36 -0000

It's about time this interloper has finally stopped being referred to by a name to which he was never rightfully entitled... ;)

Re: Why is the internet so extreme? or No, your language is not dead.

felix — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:59:23 -0000

Yeah, Ruby definitely has the momentum now, although it seems to be quieting down. Python's always had a little momentum, with a big backer like Google it's hard not to. But definitely, it just isn't hard to increase a tiny userbase - although, Apple like, it does seem to be a very high quality small userbase. Huh, Ruby/Python : Apple - PHP : Dell? Heh.

I like to think, though, that it was PHP that provided the general acceptance of dynamic languages. Unfettered by Perl's unfortunate tie (in people's minds) with the slowness of CGI scripting everyone started using it. I think what Ruby and Python are doing are giving it more of an academic flavor so that even snobby folk can finally be ok with it. :)

I agree with you re: Perl 6. In many ways, though, I'm more excited for Parrot. Seeing the performance improvement that SquirrelFish brought to javascript by moving to (amongst other things) a register based VM makes me think that the world would not be bad off with a general register based vm for all dynamic languages. An Apache mod_parrot could be a powerful thing.

Re: Why is the internet so extreme? or No, your language is not dead.

mpodrazik — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 22:10:17 -0000

Perl is totally dead, so is JavaScript:
http://blog.symbiont.net/2008/06/javascript-is-...

Seriously though, I agree with you about the hype factor surrounding languages like Ruby. I think though that another contributing factor beyond general extremeness is growth rate. If you look at the job trends at indeed.com for an arbitrary selection of languages, (http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=c%2Cjava%2Cc%...), it shows perl beating out other dynamic languages like php, python and ruby, (although still behind c, java, c++ and c#).

If you check the relative scale though, (http://www.indeed.com/jobtrends?q=c%2Cjava%2Cc%...), ruby is just off the chart. Yeah, you can say that because it's mindshare/marketshare is so small that it's easy for it to rack up big growth rates, and you'd be right, but big moves like that that are new are the definition of news, and that in turn feeds the blogs and the general zeitgeist.

The ruby hyperbole I think is on its way out. What is good though, I think, is a general acceptance of dynamic languages, and maybe more than that but a breaking down of peoples' inhibitions about language proliferation in general. That can only be good for something like perl once 6 is official, right?

Re: Google AppEngine & Amazon AWS

felix — Mon, 12 May 2008 07:40:59 -0000

That's a pretty interesting idea, I hope someone's working on it already. Another thing that would be most awesome is coming at the same idea from a different angle - if Amazon could just let EC2 instances grow arbitrarily gigantic, so you get one instance and it simply can use more and more compute cycles as necessary - or if it's a logistical effort, instead of adding more instances you add more "cpus" to a given instance. I suspect that would be workable for many but the top 1% of super cpu suckers like twitter - you'd end up with a massive instance but not mind bogglingly so.

Re: Google AppEngine & Amazon AWS

mpodrazik — Sun, 11 May 2008 19:52:09 -0000

RE: your virtual RackSpace idea, something like this may be a tool in the NOC:

http://www.rightscale.com/

I'm waiting for someone to move up to the next level of abstraction and effectively merge the appengine and AWS approaches. Something like a web framework based on [insert-favorite-framework-here] but with explicit supports for SimpleDB, SQS, S3, etc. as well as callbacks for notifying the master container about load conditions so that autonomous or rule-based VM instantiation (and reaping) can occur in response to traffic patterns.

A concept like that could be merged with a virtual hosting idea to give kinda the best of both worlds - flexibility and hands-offness...